●Model record 577–226 71.9% winners Correct 577/803 Avg error ±12.7 pts ATS 414–377–12 52.3% vs spread 803 games tracked ●71.9% winners Correct 577/803 Avg error ±12.7 pts ATS 414–377–12 52.3% vs spread 803 games tracked
2025 Season

Week 5 Picks

W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 W15 W16 Bowls
Final Off by 0
Houston Win 27
@Oregon State 24
Vegas Houston −12.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Oregon State
Total 47
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Houston −3.5 58% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 0
UConn Win 20
@Buffalo 17
Vegas UConn −2.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 0.5 toward UConn
Total 53.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model UConn −3 57% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 1
Rutgers 28
@Minnesota Win 31
Vegas Minnesota −5.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1.5 toward Rutgers
Total 54
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Minnesota −4 60% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 1
South Alabama 22
@North Texas Win 36
Vegas North Texas −12.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 3 toward North Texas
Total 63.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model North Texas −15 82% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 1
Indiana Win 20
@Iowa 15
Vegas Indiana −7.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 6.5 toward Indiana
Total 53
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Indiana −6 64% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 1
San Diego State Win 6
@Northern Illinois 3
Vegas San Diego State −3 = Push
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Northern Illinois
Total 42.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model San Diego State −2.5 56% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 1
San José State 29
@Stanford Win 30
Vegas Stanford −2 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1.5 toward Stanford
Total 50.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Stanford −2 55% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 1
BYU Win 24
@Colorado 21
Vegas BYU −6.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2.5 toward BYU
Total 50
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model BYU −4 60% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 2
TCU 24
@Arizona State Win 27
Vegas Arizona State −2.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1.5 toward Arizona State
Total 57
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Arizona State −1 53% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 3
Louisville Win 34
@Pittsburgh 27
Vegas Louisville −3.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2.5 toward Pittsburgh
Total 58.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Louisville −3.5 59% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 3
Utah State 35
@Vanderbilt Win 55
Vegas Vanderbilt −22 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward Vanderbilt
Total 60.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Vanderbilt −17 86% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 3
UCLA 14
@Northwestern Win 17
Vegas Northwestern −6.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 0.5 toward Northwestern
Total 43.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Northwestern −6.5 65% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 3
Liberty 7
@Old Dominion Win 21
Vegas Old Dominion −15 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 6 toward Old Dominion
Total 50.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Old Dominion −11 75% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 4
Baylor Win 45
@Oklahoma State 27
Vegas Baylor −20.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 3.5 toward Baylor
Total 60.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Baylor −14.5 81% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 4
Tennessee Win 41
@Mississippi State 34
Vegas Tennessee −9 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2.5 toward Mississippi State
Total 62.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Tennessee −3.5 58% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 4
Western Kentucky Win 27
@Missouri State 22
Vegas Western Kentucky −5 = Push
Line moved ▲ 3.5 toward Missouri State
Total 55.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Western Kentucky −1 53% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 4
Alabama Win 24
@Georgia 21
Vegas Georgia −3 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1.5 toward Alabama
Total 54
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Georgia −1 52% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 5
Rice 13
@Navy Win 21
Vegas Navy −14.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 0.5 toward Rice
Total 50.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Navy −13 79% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 5
Middle Tennessee 16
@Kennesaw State Win 24
Vegas Kennesaw State −6.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Kennesaw State
Total 46.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Kennesaw State −3.5 58% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 5
Oregon Win 30
@Penn State 24
Vegas Penn State −3 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2 toward Oregon
Total 53
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Oregon −1 51% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 5
Marshall 51
@Louisiana Win 54
Vegas Louisiana −2.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 6 toward Marshall
Total 50
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Marshall −2.5 56% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 6
Georgia Tech Win 30
@Wake Forest 29
Vegas Georgia Tech −14 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 3.5 toward Wake Forest
Total 53
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Georgia Tech −7.5 67% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 6
Arkansas State 16
@UL Monroe Win 28
Vegas UL Monroe −3.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward Arkansas State
Total 53.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model UL Monroe −5.5 63% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 6
New Mexico State 20
@New Mexico Win 38
Vegas New Mexico −14 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 6.5 toward New Mexico
Total 56.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model New Mexico −12.5 78% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 7
Auburn 10
@Texas A&M Win 16
Vegas Texas A&M −6.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 0.5 toward Auburn
Total 53.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Auburn −1 52% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 8
LSU 19
@Ole Miss Win 24
Vegas Ole Miss −2 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 5.5 toward Ole Miss
Total 53.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Ole Miss −12.5 78% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 9
Cincinnati Win 37
@Kansas 34
Vegas Kansas −6 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Cincinnati
Total 52
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Kansas −6.5 65% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 9
Bowling Green 20
@Ohio Win 35
Vegas Ohio −10 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 3 toward Bowling Green
Total 48.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Ohio −6 65% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 9
Georgia Southern 10
@James Madison Win 35
Vegas James Madison −17 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward James Madison
Total 56.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model James Madison −16 84% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 9
Tulane Win 31
@Tulsa 14
Vegas Tulane −13.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Tulane
Total 57
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Tulane −8 69% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 9
Massachusetts 6
@Missouri Win 42
Vegas Missouri −43.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward Missouri
Total 60
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Missouri −27.5 95% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 10
Florida State 38
@Virginia Win 46
Vegas Florida State −6.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Virginia
Total 56.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Florida State −1.5 54% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 11
California Win 28
@Boston College 24
Vegas Boston College −6.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1.5 toward Boston College
Total 51
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Boston College −7 67% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 12
Eastern Michigan 13
@Central Michigan Win 24
Vegas Central Michigan −5.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 3 toward Eastern Michigan
Total 56.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Eastern Michigan −1 52% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 13
UCF 20
@Kansas State Win 34
Vegas Kansas State −5.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 0.5 toward UCF
Total 52
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Kansas State −1 53% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 13
Virginia Tech Win 23
@NC State 21
Vegas NC State −10.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2.5 toward NC State
Total 54.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model NC State −10.5 75% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 13
Louisiana Tech Win 30
@UTEP 11
Vegas Louisiana Tech −3.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 0.5 toward UTEP
Total 43
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Louisiana Tech −6.5 65% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 14
Hawai'i Win 44
@Air Force 35
Vegas Air Force −5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2.5 toward Air Force
Total 53
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Air Force −5 63% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 16
Ohio State Win 24
@Washington 6
Vegas Ohio State −8 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 4 toward Washington
Total 53.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Ohio State −2 55% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 17
USC 32
@Illinois Win 34
Vegas USC −6.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 5 toward USC
Total 59
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model USC −15 83% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 17
Memphis Win 55
@Florida Atlantic 26
Vegas Memphis −14 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 0.5 toward Memphis
Total 58
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Memphis −11.5 76% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 17
Arizona 14
@Iowa State Win 39
Vegas Iowa State −5.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 3 toward Arizona
Total 48.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Iowa State −8 69% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 19
Kentucky 13
@South Carolina Win 35
Vegas South Carolina −6 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1.5 toward Kentucky
Total 44.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model South Carolina −2.5 57% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 21
Jacksonville State 25
@Southern Miss Win 42
Vegas Southern Miss −4 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward Southern Miss
Total 56
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Jacksonville State −4 59% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 24
Utah Win 48
@West Virginia 14
Vegas Utah −10 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 3 toward Utah
Total 50.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Utah −10 73% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 25
Army 6
@East Carolina Win 28
Vegas East Carolina −3 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward East Carolina
Total 55
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Army −2.5 56% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 25
Akron 3
@Toledo Win 45
Vegas Toledo −21 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Toledo
Total 49
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Toledo −17 86% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 26
Washington State Win 20
@Colorado State 3
Vegas Colorado State −4.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2 toward Colorado State
Total 53.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Colorado State −8.5 70% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 27
App State 14
@Boise State Win 47
Vegas Boise State −17 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1 toward App State
Total 59.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Boise State −6 65% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 37
Duke Win 38
@Syracuse 3
Vegas Duke −5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2.5 toward Syracuse
Total 61.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Syracuse −1.5 54% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 43
Notre Dame Win 56
@Arkansas 13
Vegas Notre Dame −6 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 5 toward Arkansas
Total 62
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Arkansas −1 50% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →