Model record 577–226 71.9% winners Correct 577/803 Avg error ±12.7 pts ATS 414–377–12 52.3% vs spread 803 games tracked 71.9% winners Correct 577/803 Avg error ±12.7 pts ATS 414–377–12 52.3% vs spread 803 games tracked
2025 Season

Week 4 Picks

W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 W15 W16 Bowls
Final Off by 0
South Carolina 20
@Missouri Win 29
Vegas Missouri −10 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 7 toward Missouri
Total 52 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Missouri −9.5 72% win prob
Final Off by 1
Arkansas 31
@Memphis Win 32
Vegas Arkansas −7 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1.5 toward Arkansas
Total 58 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Arkansas −1 51% win prob
Final Off by 1
Oregon State 7
@Oregon Win 41
Vegas Oregon −33.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 7 toward Oregon
Total 61 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Oregon −33.5 98% win prob
Final Off by 1
UTSA Win 17
@Colorado State 16
Vegas UTSA −4.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward UTSA
Total 57.5 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model UTSA −1 50% win prob
Final Off by 2
Purdue 30
@Notre Dame Win 56
Vegas Notre Dame −24.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 6 toward Purdue
Total 55.5 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Notre Dame −28 96% win prob
Final Off by 2
Arizona State Win 27
@Baylor 24
Vegas Baylor −3 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Arizona State
Total 60 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Arizona State −5 62% win prob
Final Off by 4
UNLV Win 41
@Miami (OH) 38
Vegas UNLV −2.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 3 toward Miami (OH)
Total 46.5 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model UNLV −6.5 66% win prob
Final Off by 4
Auburn 17
@Oklahoma Win 24
Vegas Oklahoma −6.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward Oklahoma
Total 45.5 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Oklahoma −3.5 58% win prob
Final Off by 4
Temple 24
@Georgia Tech Win 45
Vegas Georgia Tech −24.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Georgia Tech
Total 54 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Georgia Tech −16.5 85% win prob
Final Off by 4
Marshall Win 42
@Middle Tennessee 28
Vegas Marshall −2.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward Middle Tennessee
Total 48 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Marshall −9.5 72% win prob
Final Off by 6
Iowa Win 38
@Rutgers 28
Vegas Iowa −2.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 0.5 toward Rutgers
Total 52.5 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Iowa −3.5 59% win prob
Final Off by 6
Troy Win 21
@Buffalo 17
Vegas Buffalo −5.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 4 toward Buffalo
Total 50 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Buffalo −2 55% win prob
Final Off by 6
Louisiana 31
@Eastern Michigan Win 34
Vegas Louisiana −2.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 4 toward Eastern Michigan
Total 55 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Louisiana −3 57% win prob
Final Off by 6
Nevada 16
@Western Kentucky Win 31
Vegas Western Kentucky −8.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 4 toward Nevada
Total 50 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Western Kentucky −9 71% win prob
Final Off by 6
Florida 7
@Miami Win 26
Vegas Miami −8.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 5.5 toward Miami
Total 54.5 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Miami −12.5 78% win prob
Final Off by 6
Wyoming 20
@Colorado Win 37
Vegas Colorado −12.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 3 toward Wyoming
Total 44.5 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Colorado −11 75% win prob
Final Off by 6
Fresno State Win 23
@Hawai'i 21
Vegas Fresno State −2.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Hawai'i
Total 49.5 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Fresno State −8.5 70% win prob
Final Off by 7
Tulsa Win 19
@Oklahoma State 12
Vegas Oklahoma State −10 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 3.5 toward Tulsa
Total 59.5 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Oklahoma State −1 50% win prob
Final Off by 7
Michigan Win 30
@Nebraska 27
Vegas Michigan −1.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2.5 toward Nebraska
Total 47 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Nebraska −3.5 59% win prob
Final Off by 7
Arkansas State 21
@Kennesaw State Win 28
Vegas Arkansas State −4.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 3 toward Kennesaw State
Total 51.5 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Kennesaw State −1 51% win prob
Final Off by 7
Boise State Win 49
@Air Force 37
Vegas Boise State −10.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 3 toward Boise State
Total 56 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Boise State −5.5 63% win prob
Final Off by 7
Michigan State 31
@USC Win 45
Vegas USC −18.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 4 toward USC
Total 57 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model USC −21 90% win prob
Final Off by 8
UAB 24
@Tennessee Win 56
Vegas Tennessee −39.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2 toward UAB
Total 67.5 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Tennessee −24.5 93% win prob
Final Off by 9
Rice Win 28
@Charlotte 17
Vegas Rice −1.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 5 toward Charlotte
Total 48 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Rice −2.5 56% win prob
Final Off by 9
North Texas Win 45
@Army 38
Vegas North Texas −2.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 4 toward North Texas
Total 58 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Army −1.5 54% win prob
Final Off by 9
Bowling Green 17
@Louisville Win 40
Vegas Louisville −26.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2 toward Bowling Green
Total 51.5 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Louisville −14 81% win prob
Final Off by 9
Southern Miss 20
@Louisiana Tech Win 30
Vegas Louisiana Tech −3 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1.5 toward Louisiana Tech
Total 45 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Louisiana Tech −18.5 87% win prob
Final Off by 12
NC State 33
@Duke Win 45
Vegas Duke −3 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Duke
Total 54.5 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Duke −1 51% win prob
Final Off by 13
SMU 24
@TCU Win 35
Vegas TCU −6.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2.5 toward TCU
Total 59 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model SMU −2 55% win prob
Final Off by 16
James Madison Win 31
@Liberty 13
Vegas James Madison −7.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 4 toward Liberty
Total 49.5 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model James Madison −2 55% win prob
Final Off by 16
North Carolina 9
@UCF Win 34
Vegas UCF −7 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 3.5 toward UCF
Total 53 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model UCF −9.5 72% win prob
Final Off by 18
Stanford 20
@Virginia Win 48
Vegas Virginia −16.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward Virginia
Total 54.5 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Virginia −10 74% win prob
Final Off by 18
UL Monroe Win 31
@UTEP 25
Vegas UTEP −5.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 4 toward UTEP
Total 46 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model UTEP −12.5 78% win prob
Final Off by 19
Ball State 25
@UConn Win 31
Vegas UConn −21 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2.5 toward UConn
Total 58.5 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model UConn −25 94% win prob
Final Off by 19
Toledo 13
@Western Michigan Win 14
Vegas Toledo −13.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2 toward Toledo
Total 52 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Toledo −18 86% win prob
Final Off by 19
BYU Win 34
@East Carolina 13
Vegas BYU −6.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 3 toward East Carolina
Total 52 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model BYU −2 55% win prob
Final Off by 20
Syracuse Win 34
@Clemson 21
Vegas Clemson −17.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Clemson
Total 59 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Clemson −7 66% win prob
Final Off by 20
Maryland Win 27
@Wisconsin 10
Vegas Wisconsin −10.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 4 toward Wisconsin
Total 45.5 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Wisconsin −3 58% win prob
Final Off by 22
West Virginia 10
@Kansas Win 41
Vegas Kansas −12.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward Kansas
Total 54 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Kansas −9 71% win prob
Final Off by 22
Georgia State 21
@Vanderbilt Win 70
Vegas Vanderbilt −27.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Vanderbilt
Total 54.5 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Vanderbilt −27 95% win prob
Final Off by 23
Tulane 10
@Ole Miss Win 45
Vegas Ole Miss −12.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Tulane
Total 56.5 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Ole Miss −12 78% win prob
Final Off by 24
Delaware Win 38
@Florida International 16
Vegas Florida International −4 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1.5 toward Florida International
Total 53.5 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Florida International −2 55% win prob
Final Off by 25
Texas Tech Win 34
@Utah 10
Vegas Utah −3.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Texas Tech
Total 60.5 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Utah −1 52% win prob
Final Off by 25
Washington Win 59
@Washington State 24
Vegas Washington −21 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 8.5 toward Washington
Total 57 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Washington −10 73% win prob
Final Off by 26
Northern Illinois 10
@Mississippi State Win 38
Vegas Mississippi State −23.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward Mississippi State
Total 47 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Mississippi State −1.5 54% win prob
Final Off by 32
Kent State 10
@Florida State Win 66
Vegas Florida State −44.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 3 toward Florida State
Total 52.5 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Florida State −24 93% win prob
Final Off by 33
Sam Houston 0
@Texas Win 55
Vegas Texas −39.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2 toward Sam Houston
Total 47 ✕ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Texas −21.5 91% win prob
Final Off by 35
Coastal Carolina Win 38
@South Alabama 20
Vegas South Alabama −14.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 0.5 toward South Alabama
Total 53.5 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model South Alabama −17 85% win prob
Final Off by 41
Illinois 10
@Indiana Win 63
Vegas Indiana −7 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 4.5 toward Indiana
Total 54.5 ✓ O/U
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Indiana −12 78% win prob
Final Off by 43
California 0
@San Diego State Win 34
Vegas California −14 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2.5 toward California
Total 47.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model California −9.5 72% win prob
Sat Sep 20 · 12:00 PM Upcoming
South Carolina State 14
@South Florida 63
Vegas South Florida −36.5
Line moved ▲ 5.5 toward South Florida
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Sat Sep 20 · 12:00 PM Upcoming
Wofford 6
@Virginia Tech 38
Vegas Virginia Tech −34.5
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Wofford
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Sat Sep 20 · 1:00 PM Upcoming
Wagner 10
@Central Michigan 49
Vegas Central Michigan −29.5
Line moved ▲ 2 toward Central Michigan
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Sat Sep 20 · 3:30 PM Upcoming
Gardner-Webb 35
@Ohio 52
Vegas Ohio −30.5
Line moved ▲ 4.5 toward Ohio
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Sat Sep 20 · 5:00 PM Upcoming
Idaho 28
@San José State 31
Vegas San José State −14
Line moved ▲ 0.5 toward Idaho
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Sat Sep 20 · 6:00 PM Upcoming
Duquesne 7
@Akron 51
Vegas Akron −10.5
Line moved ▲ 2.5 toward Akron
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Sat Sep 20 · 7:00 PM Upcoming
Maine 17
@Georgia Southern 45
Vegas Georgia Southern −23.5
Line moved ▲ 3.5 toward Maine
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Sat Sep 20 · 7:00 PM Upcoming
UT Martin 10
@Missouri State 42
Vegas Missouri State −14.5
Line moved ▲ 0.5 toward Missouri State
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Sat Sep 20 · 7:00 PM Upcoming
Murray State 10
@Jacksonville State 45
Vegas Jacksonville State −35.5
Line moved ▲ 3 toward Murray State
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Sat Sep 20 · 7:45 PM Upcoming
SE Louisiana 10
@LSU 56
Vegas LSU −49
Line moved ▲ 8.5 toward LSU
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Sat Sep 20 · 8:00 PM Upcoming
McNeese 7
@Utah State 48
Vegas Utah State −24.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Sat Sep 20 · 8:00 PM Upcoming
Nicholls 3
@Texas State 35
Vegas Texas State −32.5
Line moved ▲ 3 toward Texas State
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}