Model record 577–226 71.9% winners Correct 577/803 Avg error ±12.7 pts ATS 414–377–12 52.3% vs spread 803 games tracked 71.9% winners Correct 577/803 Avg error ±12.7 pts ATS 414–377–12 52.3% vs spread 803 games tracked
2025 Season

Week 14 Picks

W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 W15 W16 Bowls
Final Off by 1
Ball State 24
@Miami (OH) Win 45
Vegas Miami (OH) −17.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Ball State
Total 46
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Miami (OH) −19.5 89% win prob
Final Off by 1
Western Kentucky 34
@Jacksonville State Win 37
Vegas Western Kentucky −2 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1.5 toward Jacksonville State
Total 54
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Jacksonville State −2 54% win prob
Final Off by 1
Northwestern 13
@Illinois Win 20
Vegas Illinois −6.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Illinois
Total 48.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Illinois −6 65% win prob
Final Off by 2
UCF 21
@BYU Win 41
Vegas BYU −17 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward UCF
Total 51
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model BYU −17.5 86% win prob
Final Off by 2
Notre Dame Win 49
@Stanford 20
Vegas Notre Dame −32.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 3 toward Notre Dame
Total 55
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Notre Dame −27 95% win prob
Final Off by 3
Boise State Win 25
@Utah State 24
Vegas Boise State −3 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 3 toward Utah State
Total 60
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Boise State −4 60% win prob
Final Off by 3
Arkansas State Win 30
@App State 29
Vegas App State −3 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 3 toward Arkansas State
Total 56.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model App State −2 55% win prob
Final Off by 3
Charlotte 0
@Tulane Win 27
Vegas Tulane −30 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward Tulane
Total 54.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Tulane −24.5 93% win prob
Final Off by 4
Utah Win 31
@Kansas 21
Vegas Utah −13 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 3.5 toward Kansas
Total 57.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Utah −14 81% win prob
Final Off by 4
Temple 25
@North Texas Win 52
Vegas North Texas −19.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2 toward North Texas
Total 64
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model North Texas −23.5 93% win prob
Final Off by 5
Western Michigan Win 31
@Eastern Michigan 21
Vegas Western Michigan −7 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 4.5 toward Western Michigan
Total 50.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Western Michigan −5 62% win prob
Final Off by 5
Ohio Win 31
@Buffalo 26
Vegas Ohio −6 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2.5 toward Ohio
Total 49
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Ohio −10 73% win prob
Final Off by 5
Georgia Win 16
@Georgia Tech 9
Vegas Georgia −13.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 4 toward Georgia
Total 56.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Georgia −12 78% win prob
Final Off by 6
San Diego State 17
@New Mexico Win 23
Vegas San Diego State −1.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1.5 toward New Mexico
Total 47.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model New Mexico −1 50% win prob
Final Off by 6
Colorado 14
@Kansas State Win 24
Vegas Kansas State −17 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Colorado
Total 54.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Kansas State −16 84% win prob
Final Off by 6
LSU 13
@Oklahoma Win 17
Vegas Oklahoma −10 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 3 toward Oklahoma
Total 42.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Oklahoma −10 74% win prob
Final Off by 6
Oregon Win 26
@Washington 14
Vegas Oregon −6.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 4 toward Washington
Total 54.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Oregon −6.5 65% win prob
Final Off by 7
Toledo Win 21
@Central Michigan 3
Vegas Toledo −10.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2 toward Toledo
Total 47
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Toledo −10.5 74% win prob
Final Off by 7
UCLA 10
@USC Win 29
Vegas USC −21 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2 toward USC
Total 57
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model USC −25.5 94% win prob
Final Off by 7
Maryland 28
@Michigan State Win 38
Vegas Michigan State −4 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Michigan State
Total 47.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Michigan State −2.5 57% win prob
Final Off by 8
Ole Miss Win 38
@Mississippi State 19
Vegas Ole Miss −7.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 6 toward Mississippi State
Total 60.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Ole Miss −11 75% win prob
Final Off by 8
Ohio State Win 27
@Michigan 9
Vegas Ohio State −9.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 4 toward Ohio State
Total 46
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Ohio State −9.5 72% win prob
Final Off by 8
Louisiana Tech Win 42
@Missouri State 30
Vegas Missouri State −3 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Louisiana Tech
Total 48.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Louisiana Tech −4 60% win prob
Final Off by 8
UL Monroe 27
@Louisiana Win 30
Vegas Louisiana −10.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 3 toward UL Monroe
Total 51
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Louisiana −11 75% win prob
Final Off by 8
Oregon State 8
@Washington State Win 32
Vegas Washington State −13.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2 toward Washington State
Total 50
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Washington State −15.5 83% win prob
Final Off by 8
Virginia Tech 7
@Virginia Win 27
Vegas Virginia −10.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2.5 toward Virginia Tech
Total 53.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Virginia −12 77% win prob
Final Off by 10
Georgia State 10
@Old Dominion Win 27
Vegas Old Dominion −26.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 5 toward Old Dominion
Total 58
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Old Dominion −27 95% win prob
Final Off by 10
Middle Tennessee Win 31
@New Mexico State 24
Vegas New Mexico State −5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1.5 toward Middle Tennessee
Total 51
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model New Mexico State −3 57% win prob
Final Off by 10
Kennesaw State Win 48
@Liberty 42
Vegas Kennesaw State −2 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Kennesaw State
Total 49
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Liberty −4 60% win prob
Final Off by 10
Army Win 27
@UTSA 24
Vegas UTSA −7 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward UTSA
Total 55.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model UTSA −7 67% win prob
Final Off by 11
Kent State Win 35
@Northern Illinois 31
Vegas Northern Illinois −5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Northern Illinois
Total 45
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Northern Illinois −6.5 66% win prob
Final Off by 11
UAB Win 31
@Tulsa 24
Vegas Tulsa −9.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward Tulsa
Total 62
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Tulsa −4 59% win prob
Final Off by 11
Wisconsin 7
@Minnesota Win 17
Vegas Minnesota −1 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 5 toward Wisconsin
Total 40
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Wisconsin −1 51% win prob
Final Off by 12
Texas A&M 17
@Texas Win 27
Vegas Texas A&M −2 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 12.5 toward Texas A&M
Total 52
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Texas A&M −2 54% win prob
Final Off by 12
South Alabama 26
@Texas State Win 49
Vegas Texas State −9 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Texas State
Total 63
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Texas State −10.5 75% win prob
Final Off by 12
Missouri Win 31
@Arkansas 17
Vegas Missouri −2.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2.5 toward Missouri
Total 59.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Missouri −2 55% win prob
Final Off by 13
Penn State Win 40
@Rutgers 36
Vegas Penn State −12 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 4 toward Penn State
Total 58
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Penn State −17.5 86% win prob
Final Off by 14
Iowa State Win 20
@Oklahoma State 13
Vegas Iowa State −14 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2.5 toward Oklahoma State
Total 53
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Iowa State −21.5 91% win prob
Final Off by 14
Troy Win 28
@Southern Miss 18
Vegas Southern Miss −7 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1.5 toward Southern Miss
Total 52.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Southern Miss −4 60% win prob
Final Off by 15
North Carolina 19
@NC State Win 42
Vegas NC State −7 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 5 toward NC State
Total 51
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model NC State −8.5 70% win prob
Final Off by 16
Wake Forest 32
@Duke Win 49
Vegas Duke −2.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Wake Forest
Total 52.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Duke −1 53% win prob
Final Off by 16
UNLV Win 42
@Nevada 17
Vegas UNLV −7.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward Nevada
Total 54.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model UNLV −9.5 72% win prob
Final Off by 16
Wyoming 7
@Hawai'i Win 27
Vegas Hawai'i −10 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2 toward Wyoming
Total 45
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Hawai'i −4.5 61% win prob
Final Off by 17
Bowling Green Win 45
@Massachusetts 14
Vegas Bowling Green −14.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2.5 toward Massachusetts
Total 48
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Bowling Green −14 81% win prob
Final Off by 17
Iowa Win 40
@Nebraska 16
Vegas Iowa −5.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 8 toward Iowa
Total 46
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Iowa −7 67% win prob
Final Off by 18
Navy Win 28
@Memphis 17
Vegas Memphis −5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2.5 toward Navy
Total 59
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Memphis −7.5 67% win prob
Final Off by 18
Cincinnati 23
@TCU Win 45
Vegas TCU −4 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1.5 toward Cincinnati
Total 54.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model TCU −4 60% win prob
Final Off by 19
Arizona Win 23
@Arizona State 7
Vegas Arizona State −1 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward Arizona
Total 52
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Arizona State −3 57% win prob
Final Off by 19
Clemson Win 28
@South Carolina 14
Vegas South Carolina −2 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 7 toward South Carolina
Total 47.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model South Carolina −4.5 61% win prob
Final Off by 19
Rice 3
@South Florida Win 52
Vegas South Florida −27.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 4 toward South Florida
Total 59.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model South Florida −30 97% win prob
Final Off by 21
Air Force Win 42
@Colorado State 21
Vegas Air Force −3 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 0.5 toward Colorado State
Total 53
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Air Force −1 50% win prob
Final Off by 21
Georgia Southern Win 24
@Marshall 19
Vegas Marshall −7.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 4 toward Marshall
Total 61.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Marshall −16 84% win prob
Final Off by 21
Boston College Win 34
@Syracuse 12
Vegas Boston College −3 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Syracuse
Total 58.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Boston College −1 52% win prob
Final Off by 22
Miami Win 38
@Pittsburgh 7
Vegas Miami −6.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Pittsburgh
Total 58
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Miami −9 71% win prob
Final Off by 22
Florida State 21
@Florida Win 40
Vegas Florida −1 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 4 toward Florida State
Total 48
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Florida State −3 57% win prob
Final Off by 23
SMU 35
@California Win 38
Vegas SMU −13 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 3.5 toward SMU
Total 51
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model SMU −19.5 89% win prob
Final Off by 24
Indiana Win 56
@Purdue 3
Vegas Indiana −28.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Indiana
Total 56.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Indiana −28.5 96% win prob
Final Off by 25
UTEP 31
@Delaware Win 61
Vegas Delaware −5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward UTEP
Total 54
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Delaware −5.5 63% win prob
Final Off by 26
Vanderbilt Win 45
@Tennessee 24
Vegas Tennessee −3 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 3 toward Vanderbilt
Total 62
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Tennessee −4.5 61% win prob
Final Off by 26
James Madison Win 59
@Coastal Carolina 10
Vegas James Madison −22 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 3.5 toward James Madison
Total 55.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model James Madison −22.5 92% win prob
Final Off by 27
Texas Tech Win 49
@West Virginia 0
Vegas Texas Tech −21 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 5 toward Texas Tech
Total 59.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Texas Tech −21.5 91% win prob
Final Off by 27
Fresno State Win 41
@San José State 14
Vegas Fresno State −2.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Fresno State
Total 50
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Fresno State −1 51% win prob
Final Off by 29
Florida International Win 56
@Sam Houston 16
Vegas Florida International −10 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 0.5 toward Florida International
Total 50
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Florida International −10.5 75% win prob
Final Off by 30
East Carolina Win 42
@Florida Atlantic 3
Vegas East Carolina −6.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 0.5 toward East Carolina
Total 62.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model East Carolina −9.5 72% win prob
Final Off by 37
Kentucky 0
@Louisville Win 41
Vegas Louisville −3.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 8 toward Kentucky
Total 50
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Louisville −4.5 61% win prob