●Model record 577–226 71.9% winners Correct 577/803 Avg error ±12.7 pts ATS 414–377–12 52.3% vs spread 803 games tracked ●71.9% winners Correct 577/803 Avg error ±12.7 pts ATS 414–377–12 52.3% vs spread 803 games tracked
2025 Season

Week 11 Picks

W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 W15 W16 Bowls
Final Off by 0
Northwestern 17
@USC Win 38
Vegas USC −14 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward Northwestern
Total 51.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model USC −21.5 91% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 1
Kent State 13
@Ball State Win 17
Vegas Ball State −2.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 0.5 toward Ball State
Total 51
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Ball State −3 57% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 1
Nebraska Win 28
@UCLA 21
Vegas UCLA −3 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 6 toward UCLA
Total 49.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Nebraska −6 65% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 1
Charlotte 22
@East Carolina Win 48
Vegas East Carolina −28.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 3 toward East Carolina
Total 55.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model East Carolina −25 94% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 1
Kansas 20
@Arizona Win 24
Vegas Arizona −6 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward Arizona
Total 54
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Arizona −2.5 56% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 1
Auburn 38
@Vanderbilt Win 45
Vegas Vanderbilt −7 = Push
Line moved ▲ 2 toward Auburn
Total 48.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Vanderbilt −5.5 64% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 2
Bowling Green 21
@Eastern Michigan Win 27
Vegas Eastern Michigan −2 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1.5 toward Eastern Michigan
Total 49.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Eastern Michigan −4 60% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 2
Jacksonville State Win 30
@UTEP 27
Vegas Jacksonville State −1.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward UTEP
Total 52
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Jacksonville State −4.5 61% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 2
Syracuse 10
@Miami Win 38
Vegas Miami −28.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Miami
Total 58.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Miami −26.5 95% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 2
Kennesaw State Win 24
@New Mexico State 21
Vegas Kennesaw State −7.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 5 toward Kennesaw State
Total 47
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Kennesaw State −5 62% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 2
Stanford 15
@North Carolina Win 20
Vegas North Carolina −9 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward North Carolina
Total 47.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model North Carolina −6.5 66% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 3
Southern Miss Win 27
@Arkansas State 21
Vegas Southern Miss −6 = Push
Line moved ▼ 3 toward Southern Miss
Total 54
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Southern Miss −2.5 56% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 3
Ohio State Win 34
@Purdue 10
Vegas Ohio State −28.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Ohio State
Total 50
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Ohio State −27 95% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 3
LSU 9
@Alabama Win 20
Vegas Alabama −10.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 6 toward Alabama
Total 51
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Alabama −13.5 80% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 4
Miami (OH) 20
@Ohio Win 24
Vegas Ohio −3.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Miami (OH)
Total 47.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Ohio −8 69% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 4
Oregon Win 18
@Iowa 16
Vegas Oregon −6 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 3 toward Iowa
Total 48.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Oregon −6.5 66% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 4
James Madison Win 35
@Marshall 23
Vegas James Madison −13.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward James Madison
Total 57.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model James Madison −8.5 70% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 4
Duke 34
@UConn Win 37
Vegas Duke −8.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 3 toward UConn
Total 58
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Duke −1 52% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 5
Colorado 22
@West Virginia Win 29
Vegas West Virginia −6.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward West Virginia
Total 53.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model West Virginia −2 54% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 5
Georgia State 27
@Coastal Carolina Win 40
Vegas Coastal Carolina −7.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 0.5 toward Coastal Carolina
Total 56
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Coastal Carolina −7.5 68% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 6
Louisiana Tech 24
@Delaware Win 25
Vegas Louisiana Tech −5.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Louisiana Tech
Total 52.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Louisiana Tech −5 62% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 6
Texas State 39
@Louisiana Win 42
Vegas Texas State −2.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Texas State
Total 61
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Texas State −2.5 57% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 7
Houston Win 30
@UCF 27
Vegas UCF −1 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 4 toward UCF
Total 47.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model UCF −4 59% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 7
UAB 17
@Rice Win 24
Vegas Rice −2.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 6 toward UAB
Total 57.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model UAB −1 50% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 8
Indiana Win 27
@Penn State 24
Vegas Indiana −14.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 30.5 toward Indiana
Total 55.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Indiana −10.5 75% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 9
Georgia Win 41
@Mississippi State 21
Vegas Georgia −8 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2 toward Georgia
Total 57.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Georgia −11.5 76% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 10
Iowa State Win 20
@TCU 17
Vegas TCU −6.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 4.5 toward TCU
Total 55.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model TCU −7 67% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 11
Georgia Southern Win 25
@App State 23
Vegas App State −6.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Georgia Southern
Total 59.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model App State −8.5 70% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 13
Tulane Win 38
@Memphis 32
Vegas Memphis −6.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 4 toward Tulane
Total 55.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Memphis −7 67% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 13
Temple 13
@Army Win 14
Vegas Army −7 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2 toward Army
Total 53
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Army −14 81% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 13
Florida State 10
@Clemson Win 24
Vegas Clemson −2 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 15 toward Florida State
Total 55
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Clemson −1 52% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 14
Washington 10
@Wisconsin Win 13
Vegas Washington −11 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 3 toward Wisconsin
Total 46
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Washington −11.5 76% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 14
BYU 7
@Texas Tech Win 29
Vegas Texas Tech −10.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 5 toward Texas Tech
Total 57.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Texas Tech −8 69% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 14
Tulsa 21
@Florida Atlantic Win 40
Vegas Florida Atlantic −4.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward Tulsa
Total 61.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Florida Atlantic −5.5 63% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 14
Sam Houston Win 21
@Oregon State 17
Vegas Oregon State −20 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 3.5 toward Oregon State
Total 52
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Oregon State −10 73% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 15
Missouri State Win 21
@Liberty 17
Vegas Liberty −7.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Liberty
Total 50.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Liberty −10.5 75% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 16
Maryland 20
@Rutgers Win 35
Vegas Maryland −2 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Maryland
Total 55.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Maryland −1 52% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 16
Wake Forest Win 16
@Virginia 9
Vegas Virginia −6.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Virginia
Total 52.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Virginia −8.5 70% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 17
Air Force Win 26
@San José State 16
Vegas San José State −4.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 3.5 toward San José State
Total 59
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model San José State −7.5 68% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 19
SMU Win 45
@Boston College 13
Vegas SMU −12 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 3 toward Boston College
Total 55
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model SMU −13 79% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 19
Texas A&M Win 38
@Missouri 17
Vegas Texas A&M −6 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 2 toward Texas A&M
Total 55.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Texas A&M −1.5 54% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 19
Navy 10
@Notre Dame Win 49
Vegas Notre Dame −25 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 6 toward Notre Dame
Total 57.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Notre Dame −20 89% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 20
California Win 29
@Louisville 26
Vegas Louisville −19.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Louisville
Total 52
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Louisville −17.5 86% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 21
UTSA 23
@South Florida Win 55
Vegas South Florida −13.5 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1.5 toward South Florida
Total 63
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model South Florida −11 75% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 22
Northern Illinois 3
@Toledo Win 42
Vegas Toledo −14.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Toledo
Total 41.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Toledo −16.5 85% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 23
Massachusetts 10
@Akron Win 44
Vegas Akron −10.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▲ 3 toward Akron
Total 48.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Akron −10.5 74% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 28
Florida International Win 56
@Middle Tennessee 30
Vegas Florida International −1 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 3 toward Middle Tennessee
Total 49.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Middle Tennessee −2.5 56% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 29
Nevada 14
@Utah State Win 51
Vegas Utah State −10 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 2 toward Nevada
Total 54
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Utah State −8.5 70% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 30
UNLV Win 42
@Colorado State 10
Vegas UNLV −6 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 1 toward Colorado State
Total 57
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model UNLV −1.5 54% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 32
Florida 7
@Kentucky Win 38
Vegas Florida −3.5 ✓ ATS
Line moved ▼ 1 toward Florida
Total 44.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model Florida −1 51% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →
Final Off by 46
San Diego State 6
@Hawai'i Win 38
Vegas San Diego State −6 ✕ ATS
Line moved ▲ 4 toward San Diego State
Total 48.5
{# Row-level, not page-level: with a free tier the same page carries both full and withheld cards, and the data layer has already stripped the withheld ones. Presence of the number is the honest test. #}
Model San Diego State −14.5 81% win prob
Enhanced Check Details →